Despite President Donald Tump’s unpopularity in Wisconsin and Democratic victories in 2018, Wisconsin is still ranked as a “toss-up” state in the 2020 presidential contest according to a respected national political forecaster.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics says Wisconsin joins Arizona, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and the 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska in the “toss-up” category.
“If it seems like we’re splitting hairs by rating Michigan as Leans Democratic and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as Toss-ups, we have to admit that we are,” wrote Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Crystal Ball. “But Trump’s margin in the latter two were a tiny bit bigger than his margin in Michigan, and we think the Democrats’ path to victory in Michigan is more solvable based just on slightly better turnout, whereas the Democrats may have a little more persuasion work to do in the other two former ‘Blue Wall’ states.”
Kondik notes that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire by less than half a point in 2016. Trump won Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than a point and Arizona by 3.5 points. Democrats have traditionally done better in Michigan, which is why the state is not in the toss-up category.
According to Crystal Ball, Trump currently has a slight advantage 248-244 in the Electoral College with 46 votes in the toss-up category.
In the January Marquette Law School Poll, 44 percent of those polled in Wisconsin approved of the job Trump is doing as president compared to 52 percent disapproval. Of the registered voters in Wisconsin polled, just 27 percent said they would definitely vote, and 12 percent would probably vote, to reelect Trump. However, eight percent of registered voters said they would probably vote for someone else while 49 percent said they would definitely vote for someone else.
