Into the Arena

Tuesday night is the first, and so far only, scheduled presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. The two candidates are essentially tied, whether you’re looking at the Real Clear Politics polling average, The New York Times, the 538 project, or the Cook Political Report. Tuesday night’s debate could determine the direction of the two candidates’ campaigns.

I hate presidential debates. We rarely learn anything useful, and the candidates are usually judged by superficial criteria rather than the content of their statements. I try to skip them when I can, preferring to read the newspaper the next day to see how the debate was perceived rather than try to make judgments myself.

It’s hard for the news junkie, one whose mind is usually made up beforehand, to accurately judge a political debate. How they’re judged tends to shift depending on the stakes involved.

Unfortunately, the debates do matter, and even have an outsized influence on the race. We had a reminder of that earlier this year when former Trump debated current President Joe Biden. Trump was awful, by the way, but it didn’t matter.

What mattered was the current president’s performance, who confirmed the impression that age has caught up to him. Eventually, Biden realized that he could not shake that impression that he was too old and exited the race, putting the Democrats’ hopes onto Vice President Kamala Harris.

I am not going to pretend that Harris was the preferred alternative to Biden. When she was chosen, I listed a number of her flaws as a candidate. She’s confirmed some of my fears. Her economic policy positions are ridiculous and she made a terrible mistake in picking Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota (a state solidly in the Democratic column). Her previous campaign for president also makes her especially vulnerable to Republican attacks. So does her association with the current administration’s record.

On the flip side, Harris has managed to put together a campaign that has made the Democrats competitive again. Voters seem to see her as a break with the past (as much as they want to know more about her). She’s also found a way to define Trump and the Republicans as “weird but dangerous.”

Trump, on the other hand, seems to be struggling with the Harris’ entry into the race. Instead of tying her to Biden’s record, Trump is reverting back to his old habits of random insults and promises of revenge.

So the stage is set for what could be the most consequential evening of the 2024 election. Only the fate of the entire world hangs in the balance.

Please, no wagering.

The Harris Debate “To Do” List:

1. Harris has to rely on her prosecutor persona, the part of her that said, “I know Donald Trump’s type.”
2. Harris needs to lay out before the American people the case that Trump is more dangerous, and weird, than ever.
3. At the same time, Harris has to take advantage of the audience attention to introduce herself. She has to remember how few people paid attention to her as Vice President, and how this audience will be different than the audience that watched the convention.
4. Harris has to pass the threshold of acceptability. This doesn’t mean mastery of every question. It means being perceived as generally competent and likable.
5. Meanwhile, she can’t let Trump rattle her. She can’t allow herself to be provoked into being an unlikable scold. Yes, it’s a double standard for women candidates. Life’s rough.
6. Harris gets bonus points if she throws a leftist cause or person under the bus so she looks more like a centrist.

The Trump Debate “To Do” List:

1. Trump has to keep himself in check. The crazy old man with a finger on the nuclear button is not the image he wants to project. That means no interruptions. No speeches about revenge. No threatening to jail his opponents. No rehash of the 2020 presidential election. No conspiracy theories about how Harris became the Democratic Party’s nominee.
2. Trump has to keep himself in check. No misogynist comments about women in general, Harris in particular, and any women accusing him of rape.
3. Trump has to keep himself in check. No racist comments about Harris’ race.
4. Trump has to keep himself in check. If he sticks to the issues, even if he repeatedly lies, he’ll get credit for sticking to the issues and appearing presidential. Even if he repeatedly lies (and he will).
5. Trump has to keep himself in check. If he loses his cool, calls Harris “a really nasty woman,” or accuses the Biden administration of trying to kill him, he’s going to look crazy.
6. Bonus: Trump can attack the media. It won’t hurt him with anyone and will make his base feel good. Sorry, it’s just true.

Your Debate “To Do” List:

1. Don’t let just one answer or incident sway you.
2. Keep your alcohol consumption during the debate to a minimum no matter how much they’re driving you to drink. You have to be responsible the day after, even if the two candidates aren’t.
3. It’s okay to ignore the economics portion of the debate. Neither of them have any good ideas. If you’re an economist, see #2 on the “to do” list.
4. Recognize that if you’re reading this newsletter, you’re not a typical swing voter. Judge the debate by whether the candidate seemed like they could be reasonably trusted to be in the White House for four years. Then judge it by whether the candidates will inflict pain on the people you dislike. The visuals are even more important than the answers.
5. But remember, the reaction after the debate is as important as the debate itself.
6. Bonus points for you if you watch “Slow Horses” or the Milwaukee Brewers game instead.
7. Pray for the country. It needs it.

James Wigderson
Waukesha, WI