Here’s a quick take on the recount. Because the margin was less than one percent, the Neubauer campaign could request a recount. But because it was more than 0.25 percent, it would have to prepay the cost of conducting it.
If the campaign chooses to do so, it will almost certainly be throwing good money after bad. According to a study of statewide recounts between 2000 and 2015, the average change in margin for races with between one and two million cast (there were a little under 1.2 million here), the average change was 0.0188 percent. The margin of victory here was 0.48 percent.
Judge Brian Hagedorn leads Judge Lisa Neubauer by 5801 votes. In the 2011 supreme court (which involved a higher turnout of around 1.5 million), the margin changed by only 312 votes.
According to the FairVote study, no statewide recount between 2000 and 2015 changed the margin by more than around 1300 votes. Florida’s shambolic 2018 Senate recount (which may have been more of a long count) resulted in a shift of around 2600 votes – but that was out of over eight million votes cast, a much higher turnout. Nowhere near enough to give the Neubauer camp much hope.
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Rick Esenberg is the President of the Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty.
