Note: This appeared in the Life, Under Construction Newsletter on November 5, 2024. For subscription information, please click on the button below.
Become a subscriber!Time to See the Future
I promised predictions. Like the spirits that foretold Macbeth’s rise and fall, what I tell you is in the interpretation.
Nobody “knows” anything. A butterfly flutter here or there, and every poll is a shift of the probability curve away from missing a landslide.
Did they undercount the Trump vote like in ‘16 and ‘20? Or did they undercount the Democratic Vote like they did in ‘22?
If the polls are accurate right now, either candidate can become president. Either candidate could sweep the battleground states.
But…
I’m thinking that the polls are undercounting women voters. This is the first presidential election since the Dobbs decision. If I’m going to put my thumb on the scale, that’s where I would start.
I’m not alone. Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report noticed the latest NBC Poll shows women are more enthusiastic about voting this year than men (emphasis added):
final poll, share of voters who rate their election interest as at least 9 out of 10, by gender…
Year: Men/Women
2008: 79%/78%
2012: 79%/80%
2016: 76%/77%
2020: 84%/83%
2024: 74%/80%
I don’t think they’re enthusiastic about voting because their husbands told them to be.
Ironically, Donald Trump’s efforts to distance himself from the pro-life movement gives pro-life Republicans permission to weigh all of the other reasons to vote against Trump. Between Vice President Kamala Harris’ outreach to Republicans, the number of former Trump officials opposing him, and memories of January 6 may mean an undercounted “Never Trump” vote, too.
On the other hand, President Joe Biden is very unpopular, people don’t like paying more for groceries than they did, and Harris is a woman who doesn’t present “strength” enough for some voters. Maybe the rest of the GOP voters will break on the final day against her.
So, gun to my head, I’m going to predict a narrow victory for Harris in the popular vote and in the following swing states: Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. She may also get Pennsylvania, Nevada and Alaska.
That’s 298-326 electoral votes.
But according to the conventional wisdom, if the popular vote is close the Republicans have an advantage in the Electoral College. A close election, with Harris still winning the popular vote, could still result in an Electoral College victory for the Republicans just as it did in 2016 and 2000.
Despite the status of the election, I expect Trump will probably declare victory around 11:00 PM, just around the time I will be on the air with Steve Scaffidi on WTMJ-AM.
If Trump loses Wisconsin (likely), businessman Eric Hovde will probably get 45-47% of the vote and Baldwin should win re-election.
Despite the outcome of the presidential race, the election will probably be a status quo election. Republicans will take a hit in the legislature but will probably maintain control. The congressional district will likely keep the same partisan split, with Republican Tony Wied replacing Republican Mike Gallagher in the 8th Congressional District.
The one exception could be in Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district where, if women are undercounted in the polls, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) could be in trouble.
