Joe Handrick, a Republican numbers cruncher worth following on Twitter during every election, looked at how the candidates performed compared to expectation and how turnout played a role in Tuesday’s special elections.

First, a look at Senate District 1 where Rep. André Jacque (R-De Pere) lost to the Democrat Caleb Frostman, 48.6 percent to 51.4 percent:

The turnout rate in Door County was higher than elsewhere, helping Frostman:

Meanwhile in Assembly district 42, Jon Plumer (R-Town of Lodi) defeated Democrat Ann Groves Lloyd 53.2 percent to 45 percent.

Handrick points out that it probably helped Plumer that he came from the swing part of the district, Columbia County. Other Republicans have noted behind the scenes that the rate of Republican turnout was actually higher in the Assembly race than in the Senate race.

In November, both elections are expected to get a do-over. Plumer will face Groves Lloyd again while Jacque should win the August 14 primary to take on Frostman again.

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