Joe Handrick, a Republican numbers cruncher worth following on Twitter during every election, looked at how the candidates performed compared to expectation and how turnout played a role in Tuesday’s special elections.
First, a look at Senate District 1 where Rep. André Jacque (R-De Pere) lost to the Democrat Caleb Frostman, 48.6 percent to 51.4 percent:
#SD01 election numbers 1 of 2: GOP candidate did OK in his Asm seat (Brown/Manitowoc), but poorly elsewhere. pic.twitter.com/RUGdN9xIMn
— joe handrick (@joeminocqua) June 14, 2018
The turnout rate in Door County was higher than elsewhere, helping Frostman:
#SD01 election numbers 2 of 2: Turnout! Notice the turnout spike (relative to the remainder of the district) for Door County. pic.twitter.com/9vyi1ss1tw
— joe handrick (@joeminocqua) June 14, 2018
Meanwhile in Assembly district 42, Jon Plumer (R-Town of Lodi) defeated Democrat Ann Groves Lloyd 53.2 percent to 45 percent.
#AD42 election numbers 1 of 2: GOP candidate exceeded what he needed to do across the entire district. pic.twitter.com/EAsOUuxuey
— joe handrick (@joeminocqua) June 14, 2018
#AD42 election numbers 2 of 2: Turnout! No surprise that Columbia (home to both candidates) saw a stronger than normal share of vote. pic.twitter.com/Hjk2mVPZpf
— joe handrick (@joeminocqua) June 14, 2018
Handrick points out that it probably helped Plumer that he came from the swing part of the district, Columbia County. Other Republicans have noted behind the scenes that the rate of Republican turnout was actually higher in the Assembly race than in the Senate race.
In November, both elections are expected to get a do-over. Plumer will face Groves Lloyd again while Jacque should win the August 14 primary to take on Frostman again.
